“Let’s say there’s a game: 51%, you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49%, it all disappears. Would you play that game? And would you keep on playing that, double or nothing?” That’s what Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF),
the former CEO of FTX, was asked in a March 2022 podcast with Tyler Cowen.
The vast majority of us would not take the risk of playing that game even once. After all, it seems morally atrocious to take a 49% chance of all human civilization disappearing, for a 51% chance of doubling the value of our
civilization–essentially a coin flip.